In 1930, the eminent economist John Maynard Keynes peered into the ‘economic possibilities of our grandchildren’, and ended up being very wrong.
He expected our material well-being would improve so much in a 100 years (by 2030) that we (all humans) will have more leisure to pursue our real passions and purpose. Specifically, he expected us to work less, saying ‘three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!’. He also assured us that ‘Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still. For only they can lead us out of the tunnel of economic necessity into daylight.’ That daylight remains a pipe dream.
Now, in 2024, what will a modern tech-savvy Keynes say about the ‘AI possibilities for our grandchildren’, assuming he has learnt about the futility of making predictions from the old Keynes?
A. THE SITUATION
Old Keynes in 1930
We are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism. It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress which characterised the nineteenth century is over; that the rapid improvement in the standard of life is now going to slow down — at any rate in Great Britain; that a decline in prosperity is more likely than an improvement in the decade which lies ahead of us.
New Keynes in 2024
We are suffering just now from a bad attack of AI pessimism. We hear people say that the epoch of rapid human progress which characterised the past few centuries is over, that the rapid development of AI is a big threat to mankind; that we will soon face the point of singularity, ushered by AI, when uncontrollable and irreversible technological growth will result in unforeseeable consequences for human civilisation.
B. THE PREMISE
Old Keynes in 1930
I believe that this is a wildly mistaken interpretation of what is happening to us. We are suffering, not from the rheumatics of old age, but from the growing-pains of over-rapid changes, from the painfulness of readjustment between one economic period and another. The increase of technical efficiency has been taking place faster than we can deal with the problem of labour absorption; the improvement in the standard of life has been a little too quick; the banking and monetary system of the world has been preventing the rate of interest from falling as fast as equilibrium requires.
New Keynes in 2024
We are suffering from the growing-pains of over-rapid changes, from the painfulness of readjustment between one technological period and another. The growth of technology has been taking place faster than we can deal with the problem of its safe adoption; the improvement in fancy new applications has been a little too quick; the regulatory system of the world has lagged behind the pace of technological advances, not being able to restore the equilibrium.
C. THE PREDICTION
Old Keynes in 1930
I predict that both of the two opposed errors of pessimism which now make so much noise in the world will be proved wrong in our own time-the pessimism of the revolutionaries who think that things are so bad that nothing can save us but violent change, and the pessimism of the reactionaries who consider the balance of our economic and social life so precarious that we must risk no experiments.
New Keynes in 2024
I predict that both of the two opposed errors of over optimism & absolute pessimism which now make so much noise in the world will be proved wrong in our own time — the optimism of the tech evangelists who believe AI will solve all our problems & usher in a glorious future, and the pessimism of the technophobes who say we must risk no experiments with AI.
D. THE PRESENT
Old Keynes in 1930
..this is only a temporary phase of maladjustment. All this means in the long run that mankind is solving its economic problem. I would predict that the standard of life in progressive countries one hundred years hence will be between four and eight times as high as it is to-day. There would be nothing surprising in this even in the light of our present knowledge. It would not be foolish to contemplate the possibility of afar greater progress still.
New Keynes in 2024
We are in the early phase of AI growth and adjusting to new possibilities. In the long run, AI may or may not solve all our problems. Any revolutionary tool like AI (or fire, millennia ago) give birth to new problems. It would be futile to predict he impact of AI on human life one hundred years hence, or even 10 years hence. There would be nothing surprising in saying AI will change our lives in the light of our present knowledge. But, it would be foolish to contemplate the possibility of afar greater progress still.
E. THE CONCLUSION
Old Keynes in 1930
I draw the conclusion that, assuming no important wars and no important increase in population, the economic problem may be solved, or be at least within sight of solution, within a hundred years. This means that the economic problem is not-if we look into the future-the permanent problem of the human race.
New Keynes in 2024
I draw the conclusion that, assuming no important wars and no singularity, a hundred years hence (or even 10/25 years hence), we will continue to struggle with our techno-socio-economic problems, which may evolve into newer and stranger forms, as challenging as their predecessors are now. This means that AI may not be — if we look into the black-box of the future — the biggest and the most pressing problem of the human race.
F. THE REALITY
Old Keynes in 1930
Now it is true that the needs of human beings may seem to be insatiable. But they fall into two classes — those needs which are absolute in the sense that we feel them whatever the situation of our fellow human beings may be, and those which are relative in the sense that we feel them only if their satisfaction lifts us above, makes us feel superior to, our fellows. Needs of the second class, those which satisfy the desire for superiority, may indeed be insatiable; for the higher the general level, the higher still are they. But this is not so true of the absolute needs-a point may soon be reached, much sooner perhaps than we are all of us aware of, when these needs are satisfied in the sense that we prefer to devote our further energies to non-economic purposes.
New Keynes in 2024
It is true that the needs, desires and ambitions of human beings are insatiable. Both our absolute and relative needs have shown a tendency to grow, expand, often beyond control, even though we seldom like to acknowledge this. Tools like AI can be used to both fuel or moderate our desires. While we hope we can regulate AI for our benefit, the history of our capabilities to regulate new technologies is not encouraging.
G. WHAT CAN WE DO?
Old Keynes in 1930
Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem — how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.
The strenuous purposeful money-makers may carry all of us along with them into the lap of economic abundance. But it will be those peoples, who can keep alive, and cultivate into a fuller perfection, the art of life itself and do not sell themselves for the means of life, who will be able to enjoy the abundance when it comes.
New Keynes in 2024
Irrespective of whether AI, or any other new technology or idea in the future, solves our pressing economic and social cares, it will be those peoples, who can keep alive, and cultivate into a fuller perfection, the art of life itself and do not sell themselves for the means of life and fancy technologies/ideas, who will be able to enjoy the abundant life, which is available to all, in all ages.
